Online casino operators and regulators are recalibrating plans for growth in 2026 after a wave of policy and market moves that promise to reshape margins, product design and where Americans can legally play. The two most consequential developments are the UK government’s steep increase in remote gaming tax and a string of state-level iGaming decisions in the United States that emphasize tribal exclusivity and cautious expansion.
The UK raised the Remote Gaming Duty from 21% to 40% effective April 1, 2026 – a move industry groups say will fundamentally alter operators’ business models and player offers. At the same time, the Gambling Commission’s recent product-safety rules that restrict features such as turbo spins, autoplay and celebratory audio for small returns continue to affect game design and player experience after coming into force in 2024 and 2025. Operators across Europe and globally are now weighing pricing, bonus structures and investment in regulated markets to offset the twin pressures of higher taxation and tighter product rules. (gov.uk)
Big tax, tighter rules – what operators face in the UK
The Treasury’s decision to increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from April 1, 2026, was framed by ministers as a way to capture more revenue from remote operators while harmonizing tax positions across betting and gaming. Operators warn the change could lead to reduced RTPs (return-to-player), smaller welcome offers, or a pivot toward unregulated markets unless operators pass costs to players or consolidate. The government guidance notes the rate change applies to remote gaming providers liable for Remote Gaming Duty and comes alongside wider duty revisions set to take effect in 2026 and 2027. The Gambling Commission’s parallel rules on slowing game speeds and banning autoplay already force operators to redesign features and disclosure screens to show players real-time net spend and time gambled – measures regulators say improve consumer protection but that operators say increase compliance costs. (gov.uk)
Industry reaction has been sharp. Trade bodies and some listed operators have called for phased implementation or relief measures, saying sudden tax increases risk job losses and could reduce funds available for harm-minimisation programmes. Analysts expect immediate adjustments to promotional lines and product economics from April 2026, with smaller operators particularly exposed.
US landscape – tribal exclusivity and slow state-by-state progress
In the United States, state-level iGaming remains a patchwork. Recent moves in Maine – where LD1164 was signed into law in January 2026 granting tribal operators exclusive iGaming rights – underscore a trend toward tribal-led online casino models in some states. The Maine law, which assigns an 18% revenue share to the state from tribal iGaming, exemplifies a careful, negotiated approach that leaves commercial entrants outside the market in states that adopt similar frameworks. Meanwhile, analysts caution that broad expansion of iGaming or new sports-betting approvals in 2026 may be limited, with some reports forecasting few if any new states legalizing mobile casino play this year. That suggests U.S. growth will be incremental and often framed by negotiated tribal compacts or narrow legislative packages. (casinobeats.com)
For operators eyeing U.S. expansion, the message is clear – expect complexity. Business models that worked in New Jersey or Michigan may not transfer directly where tribes secure exclusivity or where legislators remain reticent to expand. State-by-state timelines and differing tax and regulatory regimes mean rollout plans must be bespoke and often slow.
Regulatory and market observers say the combination of higher European tax burdens and careful U.S. liberalization will accelerate consolidation and strategic rationalization across the industry – larger operators with diversified footprints and deep compliance resources are best placed to absorb the shocks.
What to watch next
April 1, 2026 – UK Remote Gaming Duty rises to 40%, forcing rapid pricing and product adjustments in licensed operators.
Ongoing 2026 legislative sessions in US states including Massachusetts and Maryland, where proposals could re-emerge or stall as lawmakers weigh tribal deals and tax frameworks.
Operator earnings calls in Q2 2026 for signs of how companies will pass through or absorb higher tax and compliance costs.
For primary details on the UK duty changes consult the Treasury publication on gambling duty changes: Gambling duty changes – GOV.UK.