A flurry of recent approvals, strategic withdrawals and regulatory fights has left the U.S. land-based casino sector at a crossroads, with December 2025 shaping up as a pivotal month for how casinos, tribes and new betting models will coexist.
New York moves forward amid local pushback
On December 9, 2025 the New York Gaming Facility Location Board approved proposals that pave the way for three new commercial casinos in the New York City area, including projects in Queens and the Bronx. State officials say the developments could generate billions in tax revenue and thousands of jobs, and they framed the approvals as a major opportunity to revitalize neighborhoods and fund public services. Critics — from neighborhood groups to performing-arts organizations — immediately warned the approvals risked neighborhood disruption and an uptick in problem gambling, and urged strict enforcement of community-benefit promises.
The decision follows a tenuous bid process that saw major operators reshuffle plans this year. Notably, MGM Resorts withdrew a high-profile application in October 2025, citing the state’s shortened license terms and shifting economics – a move that narrowed the field and intensified scrutiny of who will build and operate the new properties. The approvals now leave a smaller set of contenders jockeying for long-term footholds in one of the country’s largest untapped casino markets. Read the board’s recent coverage and reporting on the approvals here: New York City braces for new casinos as gambling surge in US worries experts.
Tribal gaming, economic realities and cautious expansion
At the same time, tribal operators across the U.S. are continuing a measured approach to expansion. Recent reporting and federal data highlight that tribal casinos remain a major economic engine – generating tens of billions annually and delivering important local benefits – but tribal governments are wary of rapidly adopting new mobile sports-betting models without favorable compacts and protections for sovereignty. Several tribes have prioritized in-person retail sportsbooks and incremental digital strategies rather than immediate statewide mobile rollouts, citing both legal complexity and the need to preserve negotiated revenue-sharing frameworks.
Federal analysis released in November 2025 underscored tribal gaming’s long-term economic role while noting persistent socioeconomic gaps on reservations, reinforcing tribal leaders’ argument that growth must be managed to ensure sustainable local benefits.
Industry tension: prediction markets and the future of regulated play
Beyond land development, the casino and broader gambling industry is contending with a pronounced strategic split over prediction markets and novel betting products. In December 2025, major operators and trade groups publicly disagreed over how to classify and regulate platforms that let users trade on event outcomes rather than place traditional bets. Some emerging platforms and sports-betting firms are embracing these markets as growth channels; trade associations representing conventional casino and sportsbook interests have launched campaigns to push back, arguing the products sit outside established regulatory guardrails.
The debate matters for land-based casinos because it intersects with licensing, consumer protections and the product mix that integrated resorts will rely on to drive floor traffic and on-property spending. Operators weighing multi-billion-dollar resort builds in New York and other markets must now factor in whether consumers will shift spend to alternative digital venues and how regulators will treat those platforms.
What to watch next
In the coming weeks and months, pay attention to three developments that will shape the land-based landscape: the detailed community-benefit agreements and licensing terms New York’s new casino projects must meet; any new tribal-state compacts or legal rulings that alter how tribes can offer mobile betting; and federal or state-level moves to define or restrict prediction markets. Together these will determine whether 2026 becomes a year of rapid expansion for large integrated resorts or a period of slower, more contested growth that places greater emphasis on regulation and local impacts.